This Friday, the 31st, Fecomércio-RS released the March 2023 Consumer Intention Survey for Families in Rio Grande do Sul (ICF-RS), carried out by CNC. The ICF-RS reached 84.3 points, representing the sixth consecutive increase in the monthly comparison (1.4%) and an increase of 7.1% compared to March 2022. However, the data indicate that the recovery of confidence is losing strength, making it difficult for the indicator to return to the pre-pandemic level.
In part, this deceleration can be explained by the retreat of three indicators on this basis of comparison – Current Employment (-1.8%; 99.0 points), Access to Credit (-2.7%; 99.7 points) and Outlook Professional (-0.9%; 56.7 points) – in addition to the stability of the Current Income indicator (-0.1%; 96.8 points).
The loss of pace in economic activity since the end of last year is reflected in a labor market that has less potential to generate new jobs, which would also improve the wage prospects of workers. In addition, we currently also have much higher real interest rates, which translates into a drop in the Access to Credit.
On the other hand, Indicators such as Current Consumption Level (+6.9%; 96.4 points), Consumption Perspective (+3.6%; 88.8 points) and Moment for Durable Goods (+8.1%; 52 .6 points) has strongly contributed to the increase in the ICF in recent months. The recent conjuncture helps to explain the data presented in the research.
Although losing traction recently, the labor market in RS reflects conditions that fit into a comfortable employment situation (vacation of 4.6%), an economy without mobility and consumption restrictions (as occurred in the same periods of 2020 and 2021 and, to a lesser extent, in early 2022) and higher real yields than in the same period last year, which partly offset the negative effects of higher interest rates.
“The ICF-RS data captures a scenario in which confidence improves, but no indicator is in the optimistic camp. Thus, despite the ICF-RS showing a reduction in pessimism, it continues to indicate cautious families in their consumption decisions”, commented Luiz Carlos Bohn, president of Fecomércio-RS. See the complete data at www.fecomercio-rs.org.br/documentos/publicacoes.
This Friday, the 31st, Fecomércio-RS released the March 2023 Consumer Intention Survey for Families in Rio Grande do Sul (ICF-RS), carried out by CNC. The ICF-RS reached 84.3 points, representing the sixth consecutive increase in the monthly comparison (1.4%) and an increase of 7.1% compared to March 2022. However, the data indicate that the recovery of confidence is losing strength, making it difficult for the indicator to return to the pre-pandemic level.
In part, this deceleration can be explained by the retreat of three indicators on this basis of comparison – Current Employment (-1.8%; 99.0 points), Access to Credit (-2.7%; 99.7 points) and Outlook Professional (-0.9%; 56.7 points) – in addition to the stability of the Current Income indicator (-0.1%; 96.8 points).
The loss of pace in economic activity since the end of last year is reflected in a labor market that has less potential to generate new jobs, which would also improve the wage prospects of workers. In addition, we currently also have much higher real interest rates, which translates into a drop in the Access to Credit.
On the other hand, Indicators such as Current Consumption Level (+6.9%; 96.4 points), Consumption Perspective (+3.6%; 88.8 points) and Moment for Durable Goods (+8.1%; 52 .6 points) has strongly contributed to the increase in the ICF in recent months. The recent conjuncture helps to explain the data presented in the research.
Although losing traction recently, the labor market in RS reflects conditions that fit into a comfortable employment situation (vacation of 4.6%), an economy without mobility and consumption restrictions (as occurred in the same periods of 2020 and 2021 and, to a lesser extent, in early 2022) and higher real yields than in the same period last year, which partly offset the negative effects of higher interest rates.
“The ICF-RS data captures a scenario in which confidence improves, but no indicator is in the optimistic camp. Thus, despite the ICF-RS showing a reduction in pessimism, it continues to indicate cautious families in their consumption decisions”, commented Luiz Carlos Bohn, president of Fecomércio-RS. See the complete data at www.fecomercio-rs.org.br/documentos/publicacoes.
