A The electoral race for the mayor of São Leopoldo in 2024 is already underway, with two candidates standing out: Nelson Spolaor, from PT, and Delegate Heliomar Franco. However, what should have been a moment of in-depth debate about the city’s direction has turned out to be a real void of concrete ideas and proposals.
Despite representing opposing political camps, both Spolaor and Franco seem more concerned with establishing alliances and distributing positions among their supporters than with facing the real challenges of São Leopoldo.
Urgent issues, such as urban waste management, high IPTU values, lack of security, civil defense contingencies in the face of climate change, slowness in the approval processes for works, presentation, continuity plans for public works and the absence incentives for local businesses, have been completely ignored by candidates so far.
This stance is alarming and demonstrates a profound disconnect between the needs of the population and the priorities of politicians. The behavior of both Spolaor and Heliomar is not that of candidates committed to the search for effective solutions to the city’s problems, but rather that of mere players on an electoral board driven by personal and partisan interests.
The candidates’ lack of interest in issues relevant to the city reflects a worrying trend observed across the country. According to a survey carried out by the Ipec institute, 47% of Brazilian voters prefer to vote for candidates who are not linked to either President Lula or former President Bolsonaro in the 2024 municipal elections.
This data reveals a deep dissatisfaction with political polarization and the lack of renewal in party membership.
This polarization was evident in the results of the presidential elections in São Leopoldo, where Jair Bolsonaro (PL) obtained 48.66% of the votes, against 43.17% for Lula (PT). In the Senate elections, Hamilton Mourão (Republicans) received 44.59% of the votes, while Olívio Dutra (PT) reached 39.45%.
In the dispute for the state government in the first round, Onyx Lorenzoni (PL) led with 40.06%, followed by Edegar Pretto (PT) with 28.68% and Eduardo Leite (PSDB) with 24.90%, and culminated in the Eduardo Leite returns third in the polls.
In 2024, dissatisfaction with national political polarization is also reflected at the local level.
This balance of forces between antagonistic political camps makes the need for an electoral debate focused on the real challenges of São Leopoldo even more crucial. Candidates for mayor cannot afford to ignore the population’s demands in favor of sterile ideological disputes.
Candidates who manage to present themselves as viable alternatives, with moderate speeches and focused on the city’s real challenges, may emerge as electoral surprises,”…
Also according to the Ipec Survey, only 27% say they prefer candidates supported by Lula, while 20% prefer candidates supported by Bolsonaro. These numbers indicate that the population is tired of political division and yearns for leaders who are committed to local issues, regardless of national party alignments.
In the state of Rio Grande do Sul, in highly polarized environments, major electoral swings are common. Cases like that of Germano Rigotto, who jumped from a mere 5% directly to Piratini’s seat in 2002, and Yeda Crusius in 2006 and Ivo Sartori in 2014, who repeated the same feat in highly polarized situations, demonstrate that the voter, fed up with the low level of the debates in the final stretch of the election, ends up migrating to the center.
This phenomenon can be explained by electoral psychology. In moments of intense polarization, voters tend to feel worn out and unmotivated by the lack of concrete proposals and the excess of mutual attacks between candidates.
In this scenario, a significant portion of the electorate begins to look for alternatives that represent a kind of “third way”, candidates who present themselves as moderate, balanced and focused on practical solutions to the population’s problems. This migration of votes to the center is a form of protest against excessive polarization and an attempt to find a more constructive path for political debate.
Heliomar Franco’s vacillating stance in appointing his deputy (who were already four well-known allies at the same time), at the same time, brings together and leaves the same old party chiefs upset (many of which were from the failed administration of Moacir 2012/2016), creates enmity due to the lack of a concrete commitment to allies, in addition to generating internal disputes, eroding Heliomar’s image as a leader before he even begins to lead.
Franco does not present any project or idea that gives substance to any alliance, wanting support through mere acts of faith in his person. This attitude can alienate potential supporters and harm your campaign, as voters look for candidates with clear and consistent proposals.
Furthermore, the choice between Nelson Spolaor and Nestor Schwertner as PT’s pre-candidate for mayor divided the party’s members. The difference between the two was a mere 7 votes, revealing a tight dispute.
However, for the first time in more than 20 years, the PT enters an election dependent on its greatest ally: the PDT. This party enjoys its own light in management and, if Spolaor wins and is unable to consolidate his administration, the PDT could, at the end of 2028, “kick” the PT and in the end, bury Vanazzi’s legacy, which is great only in his ego own.
This situation is aggravated by “ghost of Sapiranga”Therefore, the fact that Spolaor had his accounts rejected by the State Audit Court (TCE) during his management in Sapiranga (TCE Certificate 0469/2018, Of. DG nº6373/2018 – Proc. nº001184-02.00/09-4) , ends the narrative of a good manager, in addition to facing 5 lawsuits filed by the State Public Ministry and the municipality of Sapiranga (cases 50008804420178210132, 5000642-59.2016.8.21.0132, 5002750-90.2018.8.21.0132, 5001906-77.2, 017.8.21 .0132 and 5002845-57.2017.8.21.0132).
These factors could weigh against Spolaor’s candidacy and require extra effort to gain the trust of the electorate.
In São Leopoldo, if the polarization between Nelson Spolaor and Delegate Heliomar Franco intensifies and the electoral debate continues to be empty of concrete proposals, it is possible that a scenario similar to that observed in other Rio Grande do Sul elections will emerge.
Candidates who manage to present themselves as viable alternatives, with moderate speeches and focused on the city’s real challenges, may emerge as electoral surprises, capturing the votes of voters dissatisfied with polarization. It is up to candidates and political parties to be aware of this dynamic and seek to build campaigns that overcome the logic of division and connect with the needs and desires of the population of Leopoldo.
The mere distribution of positions and the formation of alliances without a consistent government project can turn against the candidates, alienating voters who yearn for real changes in the city.
Spolaor, in particular, needs to face questions about his management in Sapiranga and clarify the doubts raised by the legal actions and the rejection of his accounts by the TCE.
Transparency and the ability to present solutions to the challenges faced in your previous administration will be fundamental to gaining the trust of voters.
In this highly polarized environment, as occurred in the elections of Germano Rigotto, Yeda Crusius and Ivo Sartori for the state government, it is possible that a third way will benefit and win the mayorship of São Leopoldo.
When voters are saturated with political division and the lack of concrete proposals from the main candidates, they tend to look for alternatives that represent real change and a more balanced governance perspective focused on the city’s problems.
Just as Rigotto, Yeda and Sartori emerged as viable options amid polarization and conquered the Piratini Palace, a similar scenario can emerge in São Leopoldo. A candidate who can present himself as a moderate leader, with a solid government plan and innovative proposals, can catalyze the support of discontented voters and emerge as an electoral surprise.
The exacerbated polarization between candidates Heliomar Franco and Nelson Spolaor could, in the end, lead to an unexpected result, in which a third candidate, still unknown or another that has a low percentage, emerges as the preferred option of Leopoldense voters on voting day, leaving both the delegate and the PT member with the bitter feeling of “YOU LOST, MAN!”proving that in elections, the definition only occurs at the polls.
Source: People’s Gazette. “Ipec survey: 47% of voters do not want candidates linked to Lula or Bolsonaro in 2024”. Available in: https://www.gazetadopovo.com.br/eleicoes/2024/pesquisa-ipec-eleicoes-2024-lula-bolsonaro/. Accessed on April 28, 2024.
