The end of the year is the period when sales are most expected for businesses, with the release of the thirteenth salary and Christmas. However, the watchword for consumption during this period in Rio Grande do Sul is caution.
According to the Family Consumption Intention survey (ICF-RS) released by Fecomércio-RS, the index reached 63.3 points, registering a drop of 4.6% compared to September 2023 and 15.8% compared to October 2022. The research was carried out in Porto Alegre by CNC – National Confederation of Commerce in Goods, Services and Tourism in the last ten days of September. With this result, the ICF-RS marks the seventh consecutive drop in margin and fourth in the interannual comparison. All components of the index fell in both comparison bases.
“The dynamics of the ICF-RS signals to us that the sentiment of families heading into the third quarter of this year, the most important for retail, is very cautious. This means that the sales effort on the part of retailers will be what will actually define the results of end-of-year sales”, commented the president of Fecomércio-RS, Luiz Carlos Bohn.
Employment and income
The Employment Situation (85.9 points) and Current Income (79.7 points) components recorded declines of 1.1% and 2.4%, respectively. In relation to October 2022, the drops were 10.4% and 14.2%. Among the respondents, 32.8% stated that they feel less secure in their current job than in the previous year, 41.3% feel the same and 18.8% feel more secure. As for income, 29.4% reported worsening compared to the same period last year, while 61.4% reported being the same and 9.2% better.
Even in a context of inflationary control (with deflation in food) and a heated job market, the improvements do not seem sufficient to reverse the confidence situation, in which recent gains, in the face of a high commitment of income to debt and default, seem to be aimed at a recomposition in the consumption of more essential items and still very focused on services.
As for components related to current and future consumption, there was also a renewal of write-offs. The Current Consumption indicator fell 7.2% compared to September 2023 and 22.8% compared to October 2022, with 57.8% of respondents saying they were buying less than in the same period of the previous year; 26.6% indicate an equivalent level and 15.7% a higher level than the previous year.
Durable goods
With 29.5 points, the result for Timing for Consumption of Durable Goods (-11.9% compared to September 2023 and -23.3% compared to October 2022) reflected the assessment of it being a bad time for these goods by 85, 2% of respondents. Regarding the Consumption Perspective, the drops were 3.5% at the margin and 7.2% in the inter-annual comparison, with an assessment by 47.2% of those interviewed that consumption in the coming months, of their own family and the population in general , tends to be smaller; 39.9% believe it should be the same as last year and 12.9% believe it should be higher.
The end of the year is the period when sales are most expected for businesses, with the release of the thirteenth salary and Christmas. However, the watchword for consumption during this period in Rio Grande do Sul is caution.
According to the Family Consumption Intention survey (ICF-RS) released by Fecomércio-RS, the index reached 63.3 points, registering a drop of 4.6% compared to September 2023 and 15.8% compared to October 2022. The research was carried out in Porto Alegre by CNC – National Confederation of Commerce in Goods, Services and Tourism in the last ten days of September. With this result, the ICF-RS marks the seventh consecutive drop in margin and fourth in the interannual comparison. All components of the index fell in both comparison bases.
“The dynamics of the ICF-RS signals to us that the sentiment of families heading into the third quarter of this year, the most important for retail, is very cautious. This means that the sales effort on the part of retailers will be what will actually define the results of end-of-year sales”, commented the president of Fecomércio-RS, Luiz Carlos Bohn.
Employment and income
The Employment Situation (85.9 points) and Current Income (79.7 points) components recorded declines of 1.1% and 2.4%, respectively. In relation to October 2022, the drops were 10.4% and 14.2%. Among the respondents, 32.8% stated that they feel less secure in their current job than in the previous year, 41.3% feel the same and 18.8% feel more secure. As for income, 29.4% reported worsening compared to the same period last year, while 61.4% reported being the same and 9.2% better.
Even in a context of inflationary control (with deflation in food) and a heated job market, the improvements do not seem sufficient to reverse the confidence situation, in which recent gains, in the face of a high commitment of income to debt and default, seem to be aimed at a recomposition in the consumption of more essential items and still very focused on services.
As for components related to current and future consumption, there was also a renewal of write-offs. The Current Consumption indicator fell 7.2% compared to September 2023 and 22.8% compared to October 2022, with 57.8% of respondents saying they were buying less than in the same period of the previous year; 26.6% indicate an equivalent level and 15.7% a higher level than the previous year.
Durable goods
With 29.5 points, the result for Timing for Consumption of Durable Goods (-11.9% compared to September 2023 and -23.3% compared to October 2022) reflected the assessment of it being a bad time for these goods by 85, 2% of respondents. Regarding the Consumption Perspective, the drops were 3.5% at the margin and 7.2% in the inter-annual comparison, with an assessment by 47.2% of those interviewed that consumption in the coming months, of their own family and the population in general , tends to be smaller; 39.9% believe it should be the same as last year and 12.9% believe it should be higher.
