The Brazilian climate remains under the influence of the El Niño climatological phenomenon, causing excessive rain or drought in different regions. In the South region, rainfall will be above average. And, combined with the Tropical Atlantic temperature anomaly, precipitation volumes will be below average in the Northern region of Brazil in the coming months.
According to Inpe’s general coordinator of Earth Sciences, Gilvan Sampaio, the southwest of the Amazon will receive rain again from November, but precipitation will be below average and recovery will possibly be slow. “The rainfall deficit was very large, it will still have effects in November and will recover little by little”, he says.
The prospect is that El Niño will gain strength by December and intensify the rainfall deficit over the east and north of the Amazon and the north of the Northeast. For the North of the Northeast, the indication is that the North Atlantic will continue to warm, which contributes to the drought.
Sampaio notes that the outlook for Rondônia is to maintain below-average rainfall. “It is in this area that the Madeira River basin is located, which has an important contribution to the Amazon River”, he explains. Madeira is the main tributary of the Amazon. Natural flows in Porto Velho (RO) present values 51% below the average in October.
For the southern region of Brazil, the forecast is for continued rainfall well above average. In September, accumulated precipitation volumes were greater than 450 mm in some points. In the 19 days of October, some cities recorded more than three times the average for the entire month in the South. The map indicates above-average rainfall for areas south of the Southeast and Central-West regions.
The maps from the joint bulletin of the National Institute for Space Research (Inpe), National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) and Funceme published this Thursday (26) were presented during a debate session on climate phenomena held in the Federal Senate.
The map in the technical note indicates yellow and orange bands with below-average rainfall for a large part of the North and Northeast region of the country and areas of the Central-West and Southeast.
During the session in the Senate, the general director of Inpe, Clézio De Nardin, stated that the temperature anomaly in the waters of the North Tropical Atlantic is among the largest recorded and is impacting the formation of rain clouds over the Amazon. “The very serious drought that is in the southeast of the Amazon will pass to the east of the Amazon,” he said.
He also explained how the El Niño phenomenon has an impact on the increase in rainfall in the South. With part of the Pacific warmed, the ocean winds that follow in an East-West direction over the Andes Mountains form a kind of barrier over Brazilian territory, causing cold fronts travel more slowly over the southern region.
The director highlighted the investment of around R＄ 200 million by MCTI in the Renewal of Inpe’s Supercomputing Infrastructure. Resources from the National Fund for Scientific and Technological Development (FNDCT) will be applied to the acquisition of the new supercomputer, the installation of a photovoltaic plant to meet the machine’s energy demand and the development of Monan – Model for Predicting the Oceans, Continental Surfaces and Atmosphere – unique data modeling system that receives information from satellites, radar data and other measurement systems to make forecasts of weather, ocean behavior, winds, among others.
